Jimmy 345

My plan is to buy the Playstation 3. I can't afford a $1000 player but I can easily afford a $500 player plus game console. Playstation 3s price value is far higher then anything on the market.

Steve

I rechecked the site.. I stand corrected.. The wording threw me...

Maybe it's just me - but I find this whole 'war' far too confusing.. and I really don't understand people's fanatasicm for any camp. Unless one has some kind of vested interest in the outcome, why does it really matter who wins - just as long as someone does!!

Josh Z

If you're speaking exclusively of the two Sony players that were available at DVD format launch, you're correct that the $1000 Sony outsold the $500 Sony. But you know what outsold both of them? The less expensive Toshiba.

Blitz6Speed

Actually, it is VERY different. You can go buy The Last Samurai on DVD and watch it on your dvd player. You dont need HD-DVD to watch the film. If you want to play God Of War, you need a PS2. There is 0 way around that.

Adam Tyner

From Netflix's Q1 2006 earnings conference call:

I doubt the studios would oblige without a financial incentive to do so, but without Blu-ray's beefier studio support, why would a consumer who doesn't pore over technical specs and doesn't care about space/recordability gravitate towards Blu-ray over HD-DVD?

Adam Tyner

Trimmed down this thread a good bit.

Okay, this is a discussion about the merits of HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray, not HD-DVD supporters vs. Blu-Ray supporters. Criticize the formats as much as you'd like, but don't make sweeping generalizations about a format's supporters and don't antagonize. Any posts like that will be removed.

penguin42

The PS3 has not been officially priced yet. There is no indication that it will be only $500.

digitalfreaknyc

Exactly. People are going off of this assumption. I forgot when it is but there's supposed to be a press conference about it. That's when there will be some confirmation.

But regardless of that, it's still not a BR player. Yes, it will play the movies but it won't be sitting in the same aisle as the other DVD, HD-DVD and BR players. Thus, I don't really understand people talking about how this will be such a big deal to the average consumer. Remember, they're the ones that will help this format war and they'll still see HD-DVD players at half the price. They're not going to know that PS3 has a BR player in it...nor will they want to buy a video game system to play movies.

RockStrongo

Yeah, but something very obvious that you seem to dismiss is that a very LARGE percentage of homes DONT have an HDTV.

For the DVD launch in the late 90s (97??), almost everyone could use it since they just needed the AV connections. Now, for HD-DVD AND Bluray, you MUST have an HDTV. So, its a very niche market.

IMO, the format that wins in the end will win on software sales NOT hardware sales. HD-DVD versus Bluray discs. NOT PS3 games.

As someone else pointed out, just because a million people buy a PS3 doesnt mean that they have an HDTV or will even use it for Bluray watching. Plus, Sony may be pricing themselves out of the video game market if they price it too much over $500. Most parents will go with the 360 instead. Kiddos dont really have the money to buy a PS3 on their own.

This war is still up in the air. To declare a winner now is ridiculous on either side. But, the facts are that HD-DVD is out now and creating demand where the PS3 (supposedly the heart of the Bluray format) is not even announced yet.

Jimmy 345

60% of Xbox 360 buyers own a digital television of some kind and that number can only get higher on the Playstation 3. The vast majority of Playstation 3 owners will have digital television and even some that don't might buy Blu-Ray as well to future proff themselves. Its more then possible to get a majority of Playstation 3 buyers to also buy Blu-Ray movies. However to biggest point I can make is even if I am dead wrong and only a small percentage use it it will still be enough. The Playstation 3 will sell a million copies before years end while HD-DVD will sell probably around 100,000. Only 10% of Playstation 3 buyers need to use its Blu-Ray ability for its sales to outnumber HD-DVD. Getting 10% will be incredibly easy. Playstation 3 will give Sony this war in the bag.

Another indicater of the winner is whicher format gets 100% support. The format that gets 100% support wins its that simple. Which format is more likely to get 100% support. Universal is far far more likely to release on Blu-Ray then Sony is to release on HD-DVD.

digitalfreaknyc

Welcome to your post.

Since you seem to like percentages, 100% of it is speculation.

RockStrongo

Even if your numbers are true (which I dont know about), the 360 hasnt sold a whole lot of units due to the shortage. Its sold what, about a million units since Nov? Maybe a bit more? MS was saying there would be 3 million on shelves by March, but that didnt happen.

Nice prediction. Now, how many current PS2 owners (who would be the market for PS3) own an HDTV. Not a big percentage is my guess.

Just like the 360, its not going to instantly flood the market. Even then, people are buying it for gaming. UMD ring a bell?

This doesnt even hit the fact that PS3 isnt even close to launch. We have NO information right now.

Are you psychic or something? How do you know how many units either will sell?

Your awfully confident in a product that we know nothing about right now.

Also, its ridiculous for you to make sales predictions without even knowing the pricing of the PS3.

Neither have full support. Blu-ray does have the slight edge (which is one of the things in its favor). But, neither is close to full support and things could swing rapidly either way.

joshd2012

The 360 isn't selling because there are no games, not because of availability. A quick search online shows all major retailers with units in stock.

Or how many are planning to purchase an HDTV in the next two years?

You mean that format that even Universal jumped on because of how well it was selling?

Check out the PS2 demographic, and you'll realize that they sell more to 18-25 year olds than "kiddos". And if it really is too expensive to buy little Johny, they are more likely to hold onto their PS2 or Xbox longer than dive into the new format.

Grubert

The estimates are:
PS3: three million units worldwide by the end of 2006. It's safe to expect a million or more will go to the US.

HD DVD: Toshiba initially plans to ship 2,000 units a month and will ramp up monthly production to the tens of thousands by the end of the year. By March 2007, Toshiba plans to sell as many as 700,000 units. (figures are worldwide). My prediction is they won't ramp up production until the fall, when they'll launch their 2G player. So I don't think they'll ship over 300,000 worldwide during 2006. That can be disaggregated into 150,000 for the US, 100,000 for Japan and 50,000 for Europe and the rest of the world.


Well, one thing I know: 81 is closer to 100 than 44 is.

digitalfreaknyc

Yup.

For now.

Nothing is solid.

Grubert

I agree. Just look at what the situation was last October:



In a year, Blu-ray has received the endorsement of two major studios. HD DVD has got none.

digitalfreaknyc

And again, it can just as easily move the other way as well. Nothing is set in stone. Don't be smug.

Last I saw, there's only one format out right now.

darkside

Toshiba will make their 700,000 goal, however, Sony shipping 3 million units by the end of 06 seems a dream. With their late release date and the hardware still being finalized how is manufacturing 3 million units even possible?

digitalfreaknyc

It amazes me that the BR supporters are throwing out stats and percentages when there hasn't even been an official statement yet.

Jimmy Smith

How can it. Even if Disney, Fox, and Lions Gate all go nuetral Blu-Ray will still have more studio support. Sony is not going to support HD-DVD unless it Blu-Ray is 100% dead. Blu-Rays chances of hitting that 100% mark are infidently higher then HD-DVD. Getting four studios (especially the one that invented the format) as opposed to switching just one that has little invested in HD-DVD the odds are strongly in Blu-Rays favor.

I took my numbers from Sonys Game Devolopers Conference. With the final devolopers kit hitting in June while the Xbox 360s kit hit last August Sony is in a much better position to have a better supply of its console then Microsoft did. Like every console in its first few months it will sell out and Sony will sell whatever it can make.

As for UMD comparing it to Blu-Ray is riduculous. Could it be UMD failed because it was a dumb idea. It had inferior resolution to DVD and only played on a four inch screen and lacked extras. The fact that UMD sold at all shows the power of Sonys console to generate movie sales.

digitalfreaknyc

Huh. Amusing you should mention that...because it's BR that wants to put Ipod versions of your BR movies onto an even SMALLER screen.

RockStrongo

I disagree a bit....I agree that its part of the issue, but mainly the 360 just recently started to show up more....Now is not a big buying time for the market and I think most got so used to them not being available.

I was at Target on Sunday and they had one premium in stock. Thats it.

MS would have sold a ton more had they been ready before Xmas.

Yes, the number of households buying HDTVs is steadily increasing im sure.

Maybe so, but personally, I dont know anyone who is buying them. Id be curious what the sales numbers are like cause I really dont know (other than personal experience). Everyone I know who has a PSP found a way to store a movie on it without having to buy a new format.

Im sure the demographic is very broad (Im even in it at 30). But, that doesnt hide the fact that a large percentage doesnt have an hdtv. Even the ones that do may not utilize it with bluray. The pq difference between bd/hd and sd dvd is there, but to a common j6p, it isnt a huge difference (like VHS - DVD was).

BD and HD-DVD are being sold to a niche market right now AND in the near future. I dont think EITHER has a clear lead right now. Im not about to make ridiculous predictions as to who will win (especially since BD is not even out and PS3 not even announced).

RockStrongo

Wow and these numbers arent inflated at all by Sony!?! They wouldnt do that would they?? Theyve never done that have they?? haha.

Ive been eagerly anticipating the PS3 (even more than I did for the 360!). I was sold on the PS3 and going to avoid the 360. BUT, the numerous delays and lack of information is NOT compelling in the least.

The high price tag of the Bluray players is what scares me most for the format. If those are high, just think how high the PS3 will be. If it includes a BD player, I bet it will easily sell for $700-$1000 (even after Sony eats alot of the cost).

Again, my position is not that HD-DVD will win this format war. I am willing to admit that I just dont know. I really think though, that this will not be resolved in the next couple years. We will see both formats for a long while.

RockStrongo

MS said the same thing initially for the 360.

awmurray

So, you're saying BR has a much higher chance of hitting 100% dead before HD-DVD does?