Warner, New Line, Paramount, Universal ... The Studios/Networks Thread - Part 2
#652
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Originally Posted by tonymontana313
Honestly Universal should just test the waters with a few titles on Blu like Bourne Trilogy and just go on from there.
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Found this little bit of news over at TheDigitalBits (I know, I know):
Also this morning, we haven't verified this in any way, so file it heavily in the Rumor Mill category. But our friends over at Blu-ray.com have learned at CES that THX is starting prep on a future Blu-ray release of Steven Spielberg's Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. That would make sense, as Spielberg is known to prefer the BD format. It is, of course, a Paramount title.
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Originally Posted by Yavin
Found this little bit of news over at TheDigitalBits (I know, I know):
#656
Originally Posted by cardaway
Very cool if true. It would certainly make sense that they would be working on the bonus features now.
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Via DVDFile:
http://www.dvdfile.com/index.php?opt...k=view&id=6483
Just How Fragile Is HD DVD?
Written by Dan Ramer
Monday, 14 January 2008
Indicators and predictions
Loyalties and Payoffs
Rumors continue to circulate that Warner received a huge incentive to go Blu-ray Disc exclusive. But when Warner Home Video’s Ron Sanders was asked if there had been a Warner payoff, he answered, “I wish.” During a Blu-ray Disc Association presentation last Monday, Sanders said his studio’s decision was in response to consumer demand. He denied that the studio had received a cash incentive from the Blu-ray camp. “We have a $42 billion worldwide home entertainment business; any payments would be a drop in the ocean compared to getting it wrong in terms of what the consumer wanted. It didn’t have anything to do with any incentives.”
Rumors also continue to circulate concerning Paramount Pictures Home Entertainment and Universal Studios Home Entertainment. In an article that originally appeared in The Financial Times, it was claimed that Paramount had an escape clause built into its contract. Allegedly, if Warner Home Video bails and goes BD-exclusive, Paramount had the right to back out of its eighteen month obligation to HD DVD. An unnamed (and therefore suspect) industry insider was quoted as saying that there was a significant possibility that Paramount would exercise that clause and will make a decision within a month. The escape clause was confirmed by Variety.
Variety also reported that Universal’s legal obligation to support HD DVD is over and that the studio is weighing its options. Last Thursday, the studio announced its continued support of HD DVD. Universal Studios Home Entertainment executive vice president of HD strategic marketing Ken Graffeo said, “Contrary to unsubstantiated rumors from unnamed sources, Universal’s current plan is to continue to support the HD DVD format.” Paramount made a similar statement earlier in the week.
The operative word is “current,” a word also used by Warner until it made its BD-exclusive announcement. Neither Universal nor Paramount denied that they were considering a format switch to either format agnosticism or BD-exclusivity. And that careful wording is exactly what we should expect from any business that does not want to telegraph its plans.
The Players
Toshiba is reaching out to retailers to be assured of their continued support. It’s not quite clear just how loyal retailers are going to be. We’re beginning to see fire sale pricing. Amazon is now offering a Toshiba HD-A3 player for $133.99. TigerDirect is offering the same player for $129.99. Each comes with two movies in the box and a coupon for five more. Either Toshiba has initiated price cuts in an attempt to grow the installed base or the market for HD DVD players may be collapsing.
A quick check of eBay this morning revealed that 662 HD DVD players and only 104 Blu-ray Disc Players were for sale. Now there’s a sales ratio win for HD DVD: 6.4 to 1. And depending on which city you examine, you’ll find similar disproportionate ratios on CraigsList. Secondhand HD DVD players far outnumber secondhand BD players. On Saturday, I found ratios that ranged from 14:1 in New York City to 8.8:1 in Los Angeles to 6.6:1 in San Francisco.
Considering that the BD player installed base is far, far greater than the HD DVD player installed base, these numbers are even more significant. This does not bode well for Toshiba or the HD DVD format.
Addendum: Toshiba announced in a press release dated January14th (after this column was written) that as of January 13th, the MSRP of the entry-model HD-A3 will be $149.99, the HD-A30 with 1080p output will be $199.99, and the high-end HD-A35 will be $299.99.
The Stock Market
Wall Street may be another indicator of the expected resolution of the format war. The perceptions of institutional investors, individual investors, brokers, pundits, and analysts all affect a company’s market performance. A quick check of the Yahoo financial pages reveals that for the last three months Toshiba is in decline. Its value dropped 34%.
![](http://www.dvdfile.com/images/stories/stills_jon/300x150_4/toshiba_stock_1_11_08.jpg)
On the other hand, for the same period Sony’s stock value grew by 15%.
![](http://www.dvdfile.com/images/stories/stills_jon/300x150_4/sony_stock_1_11_08.jpg)
These numbers were likely buoyed by months of strong Blu-ray Disc retail performance and by optimistic predictions about the format’s future. The Blu-ray Disc Association reported that 85% of all high definition disc players purchased since the formats were introduction 2006 are Blu-ray Disc players. And the Association pointed out that 66% of all films purchased in 2007 on high definition disc was on Blu-ray Disc.
20th Century Fox Home Entertainment's executive vice president of technology strategy Danny Kaye predicted that 2008 would be “a year of very strong, explosive growth.” He expects Blu-ray Disc players will grow from the 3.5 million sold by the end of 2007 to 10 million by the end of 2008. He also suggested that 2008’s HD movie sales would explode from 2007’s $170 million to $1 billion. Those gains are expected to trigger steep growth in Blu-ray Disc sales in 2009 and 2010 that will rival the growth of DVD in the third and fourth years following its 1997 launch. “We’re going to see an inflection point where consumers embrace and buy [Blu-ray Disc] more strongly,” he said.
Lionsgate president Steve Beeks agrees, “We believe 2008 will be a watershed year for Blu-ray's ascent in the marketplace. Hopefully, we can start focusing our energy away from fighting about which format is the better format and now start focusing on consumer education. The choice is clear; consumers need to upgrade from standard def to high def, and perhaps we can start to see packaged media sales start to grow again.” But Beeks is realistic, replacing DVD sales with Blu-ray Disc sales will “take a long time, maybe an eight- to 10-year timeframe.”
Research firm Understanding & Solutions was also optimistic, predicting that by 2011, there will be a Blu-ray Disc adoption rate countrywide of 45%. Of those, 32% are expected to be Blu-ray Disc players and 15% are expected to be PS3s. As for HD DVD, the firm projects less than a 5% penetration by 2011, assuming the format is still being marketed.
Market research organization, NPD Group also pointed out that worldwide, Blu-ray Disc represents 85% of high definition disc player hardware sold since launch, but the group was a little more conservative. NPD Group VP and senior entertainment analyst Russ Crupnick observed that the Blu-ray camp will have to educate consumers and eliminate confusion about high definition before widespread adoption can be expected. For example, many consumers mistakenly believe that they already have an HD disc player because it scales 480 to 1080.
Of course, education is exactly what the Disney/Panasonic mall tour is helping to do. Only 26% of consumers were aware of Blu-ray Disc a year ago; that number presently stands at 86%. And Disney issued a booklet of fundamental HD concepts that is gaining wide distribution. During a recent visit to BJ’s (a BD-exclusive vendor), I found that the Blu-ray Disc display had stacks of free booklets, “A Simple Guide To The World Of High Definition Home Theater, And Blu-ray Disc.” Simplified but basically accurate, these, too, should help with the education process. What is missing at BJ’s is a Blu-ray Disc playing on all the widescreen displays on the floor.
The Microsoft Connection … Again
Bill Gates made his last appearance at CES this year, explaining that he was retiring to dedicate more time to his foundation. But he made clear where he believes consumers should be investing their technology dollars. “[Microsoft is] not about physical media. Even movies are moving away from physical media.”
When asked about the Warner decision, he said, “The last announcement was Paramount opting for HD DVD and now this one is going the other way. I still think a format battle is going on there. Our contribution is the HDi Interactive format piece [; it] has been really well received. We hope to see that used broadly. I think the real competitor in the long run is digital [video] download. Just like in music, it is going to be the biggest of the three.” He continued in answer to another question, “In the long run, people don’t want physical media.”
I’ve written before and I’ll write it again. I think Microsoft has a vested interest in prolonging the format war until the infrastructure is in place to support its download service. And, alas, there is a significant proportion of the population that simply doesn’t care about quality. But, Wal-Mart and Google recently shut down their video download services, and Movie Gallery went bankrupt trying to make a go of its MovieBeam service. Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatis observed that movie downloads do not yet make economic sense. “The comfort level and technology are not there yet.”
I don’t think most Americans trust the reliability of hard disks to store their movie collections. And I don’t know about you, but I’m not comfortable with the stability and reliability of any Microsoft operating system. I’ve moved up to Windows Business Vista and I’m still experiencing resource leakage. So even if I had a 50 Gbit/sec fiber optic pipe to my door, I still wouldn’t opt for HD downloads.
Long live physical media.
Parting Thoughts
As Universal and Paramount consider their bottom lines and examine trends both in the marketplace and on Wall Street, we must wait patiently. It may take a few weeks, or a few months, or perhaps the rest of the year. But short of any grand surprise, it’s very likely that we will see the end to this destructive format war before the next president of the United States finally is sworn in.
http://www.dvdfile.com/index.php?opt...k=view&id=6483
Just How Fragile Is HD DVD?
Written by Dan Ramer
Monday, 14 January 2008
Indicators and predictions
Loyalties and Payoffs
Rumors continue to circulate that Warner received a huge incentive to go Blu-ray Disc exclusive. But when Warner Home Video’s Ron Sanders was asked if there had been a Warner payoff, he answered, “I wish.” During a Blu-ray Disc Association presentation last Monday, Sanders said his studio’s decision was in response to consumer demand. He denied that the studio had received a cash incentive from the Blu-ray camp. “We have a $42 billion worldwide home entertainment business; any payments would be a drop in the ocean compared to getting it wrong in terms of what the consumer wanted. It didn’t have anything to do with any incentives.”
Rumors also continue to circulate concerning Paramount Pictures Home Entertainment and Universal Studios Home Entertainment. In an article that originally appeared in The Financial Times, it was claimed that Paramount had an escape clause built into its contract. Allegedly, if Warner Home Video bails and goes BD-exclusive, Paramount had the right to back out of its eighteen month obligation to HD DVD. An unnamed (and therefore suspect) industry insider was quoted as saying that there was a significant possibility that Paramount would exercise that clause and will make a decision within a month. The escape clause was confirmed by Variety.
Variety also reported that Universal’s legal obligation to support HD DVD is over and that the studio is weighing its options. Last Thursday, the studio announced its continued support of HD DVD. Universal Studios Home Entertainment executive vice president of HD strategic marketing Ken Graffeo said, “Contrary to unsubstantiated rumors from unnamed sources, Universal’s current plan is to continue to support the HD DVD format.” Paramount made a similar statement earlier in the week.
The operative word is “current,” a word also used by Warner until it made its BD-exclusive announcement. Neither Universal nor Paramount denied that they were considering a format switch to either format agnosticism or BD-exclusivity. And that careful wording is exactly what we should expect from any business that does not want to telegraph its plans.
The Players
Toshiba is reaching out to retailers to be assured of their continued support. It’s not quite clear just how loyal retailers are going to be. We’re beginning to see fire sale pricing. Amazon is now offering a Toshiba HD-A3 player for $133.99. TigerDirect is offering the same player for $129.99. Each comes with two movies in the box and a coupon for five more. Either Toshiba has initiated price cuts in an attempt to grow the installed base or the market for HD DVD players may be collapsing.
A quick check of eBay this morning revealed that 662 HD DVD players and only 104 Blu-ray Disc Players were for sale. Now there’s a sales ratio win for HD DVD: 6.4 to 1. And depending on which city you examine, you’ll find similar disproportionate ratios on CraigsList. Secondhand HD DVD players far outnumber secondhand BD players. On Saturday, I found ratios that ranged from 14:1 in New York City to 8.8:1 in Los Angeles to 6.6:1 in San Francisco.
Considering that the BD player installed base is far, far greater than the HD DVD player installed base, these numbers are even more significant. This does not bode well for Toshiba or the HD DVD format.
Addendum: Toshiba announced in a press release dated January14th (after this column was written) that as of January 13th, the MSRP of the entry-model HD-A3 will be $149.99, the HD-A30 with 1080p output will be $199.99, and the high-end HD-A35 will be $299.99.
The Stock Market
Wall Street may be another indicator of the expected resolution of the format war. The perceptions of institutional investors, individual investors, brokers, pundits, and analysts all affect a company’s market performance. A quick check of the Yahoo financial pages reveals that for the last three months Toshiba is in decline. Its value dropped 34%.
![](http://www.dvdfile.com/images/stories/stills_jon/300x150_4/toshiba_stock_1_11_08.jpg)
On the other hand, for the same period Sony’s stock value grew by 15%.
![](http://www.dvdfile.com/images/stories/stills_jon/300x150_4/sony_stock_1_11_08.jpg)
These numbers were likely buoyed by months of strong Blu-ray Disc retail performance and by optimistic predictions about the format’s future. The Blu-ray Disc Association reported that 85% of all high definition disc players purchased since the formats were introduction 2006 are Blu-ray Disc players. And the Association pointed out that 66% of all films purchased in 2007 on high definition disc was on Blu-ray Disc.
20th Century Fox Home Entertainment's executive vice president of technology strategy Danny Kaye predicted that 2008 would be “a year of very strong, explosive growth.” He expects Blu-ray Disc players will grow from the 3.5 million sold by the end of 2007 to 10 million by the end of 2008. He also suggested that 2008’s HD movie sales would explode from 2007’s $170 million to $1 billion. Those gains are expected to trigger steep growth in Blu-ray Disc sales in 2009 and 2010 that will rival the growth of DVD in the third and fourth years following its 1997 launch. “We’re going to see an inflection point where consumers embrace and buy [Blu-ray Disc] more strongly,” he said.
Lionsgate president Steve Beeks agrees, “We believe 2008 will be a watershed year for Blu-ray's ascent in the marketplace. Hopefully, we can start focusing our energy away from fighting about which format is the better format and now start focusing on consumer education. The choice is clear; consumers need to upgrade from standard def to high def, and perhaps we can start to see packaged media sales start to grow again.” But Beeks is realistic, replacing DVD sales with Blu-ray Disc sales will “take a long time, maybe an eight- to 10-year timeframe.”
Research firm Understanding & Solutions was also optimistic, predicting that by 2011, there will be a Blu-ray Disc adoption rate countrywide of 45%. Of those, 32% are expected to be Blu-ray Disc players and 15% are expected to be PS3s. As for HD DVD, the firm projects less than a 5% penetration by 2011, assuming the format is still being marketed.
Market research organization, NPD Group also pointed out that worldwide, Blu-ray Disc represents 85% of high definition disc player hardware sold since launch, but the group was a little more conservative. NPD Group VP and senior entertainment analyst Russ Crupnick observed that the Blu-ray camp will have to educate consumers and eliminate confusion about high definition before widespread adoption can be expected. For example, many consumers mistakenly believe that they already have an HD disc player because it scales 480 to 1080.
Of course, education is exactly what the Disney/Panasonic mall tour is helping to do. Only 26% of consumers were aware of Blu-ray Disc a year ago; that number presently stands at 86%. And Disney issued a booklet of fundamental HD concepts that is gaining wide distribution. During a recent visit to BJ’s (a BD-exclusive vendor), I found that the Blu-ray Disc display had stacks of free booklets, “A Simple Guide To The World Of High Definition Home Theater, And Blu-ray Disc.” Simplified but basically accurate, these, too, should help with the education process. What is missing at BJ’s is a Blu-ray Disc playing on all the widescreen displays on the floor.
The Microsoft Connection … Again
Bill Gates made his last appearance at CES this year, explaining that he was retiring to dedicate more time to his foundation. But he made clear where he believes consumers should be investing their technology dollars. “[Microsoft is] not about physical media. Even movies are moving away from physical media.”
When asked about the Warner decision, he said, “The last announcement was Paramount opting for HD DVD and now this one is going the other way. I still think a format battle is going on there. Our contribution is the HDi Interactive format piece [; it] has been really well received. We hope to see that used broadly. I think the real competitor in the long run is digital [video] download. Just like in music, it is going to be the biggest of the three.” He continued in answer to another question, “In the long run, people don’t want physical media.”
I’ve written before and I’ll write it again. I think Microsoft has a vested interest in prolonging the format war until the infrastructure is in place to support its download service. And, alas, there is a significant proportion of the population that simply doesn’t care about quality. But, Wal-Mart and Google recently shut down their video download services, and Movie Gallery went bankrupt trying to make a go of its MovieBeam service. Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatis observed that movie downloads do not yet make economic sense. “The comfort level and technology are not there yet.”
I don’t think most Americans trust the reliability of hard disks to store their movie collections. And I don’t know about you, but I’m not comfortable with the stability and reliability of any Microsoft operating system. I’ve moved up to Windows Business Vista and I’m still experiencing resource leakage. So even if I had a 50 Gbit/sec fiber optic pipe to my door, I still wouldn’t opt for HD downloads.
Long live physical media.
Parting Thoughts
As Universal and Paramount consider their bottom lines and examine trends both in the marketplace and on Wall Street, we must wait patiently. It may take a few weeks, or a few months, or perhaps the rest of the year. But short of any grand surprise, it’s very likely that we will see the end to this destructive format war before the next president of the United States finally is sworn in.
#659
I don’t think most Americans trust the reliability of hard disks to store their movie collections.
Amen.
Amen.
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That stock analysis in the DVDFile article might be the dumbest piece of journalism I've read outside of links in the political forum. It's so utterly and completely devoid of any understanding of the stock market that one has to question exactly where the author found the inspiration to write this thing.
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Originally Posted by wewantflair
That stock analysis in the DVDFile article might be the dumbest piece of journalism I've read outside of links in the political forum. It's so utterly and completely devoid of any understanding of the stock market that one has to question exactly where the author found the inspiration to write this thing.
#662
DVD Talk Hero
It continues to bother me that PS3 purchases are automatically lumped into the "total amount of Blu-ray players sold" category. I understand why they do it, but it bugs me.
It's completely plausible that someone could buy a PS3 and never stick a Blu-ray movie inside. To them it's not a Blu-ray player, it's a game machine. It's not an automatic "all PS3 buyers prefer Blu-ray over HD DVD!!!" situation.
It's completely plausible that someone could buy a PS3 and never stick a Blu-ray movie inside. To them it's not a Blu-ray player, it's a game machine. It's not an automatic "all PS3 buyers prefer Blu-ray over HD DVD!!!" situation.
#663
DVD Talk Hero
Originally Posted by Draven
It continues to bother me that PS3 purchases are automatically lumped into the "total amount of Blu-ray players sold" category. I understand why they do it, but it bugs me.
It's completely plausible that someone could buy a PS3 and never stick a Blu-ray movie inside. To them it's not a Blu-ray player, it's a game machine. It's not an automatic "all PS3 buyers prefer Blu-ray over HD DVD!!!" situation.
It's completely plausible that someone could buy a PS3 and never stick a Blu-ray movie inside. To them it's not a Blu-ray player, it's a game machine. It's not an automatic "all PS3 buyers prefer Blu-ray over HD DVD!!!" situation.
#664
DVD Talk Hero
Originally Posted by DVD Polizei
I don’t think most Americans trust the reliability of hard disks to store their movie collections.
Amen.
Amen.
As for the download speeds, with VOD, you can already start watching a movie within a few seconds of hitting play. In 5 years, you should be able to start watching it instantly. Imagine having access to thousands of movies without ever having to store anything on your machine. It's like YouTube on steroids: all the movies at HD quality with instant access. Why bother storing anything locally?
#665
DVD Talk Legend
Originally Posted by Draven
It continues to bother me that PS3 purchases are automatically lumped into the "total amount of Blu-ray players sold" category. I understand why they do it, but it bugs me.
It's completely plausible that someone could buy a PS3 and never stick a Blu-ray movie inside. To them it's not a Blu-ray player, it's a game machine. It's not an automatic "all PS3 buyers prefer Blu-ray over HD DVD!!!" situation.
It's completely plausible that someone could buy a PS3 and never stick a Blu-ray movie inside. To them it's not a Blu-ray player, it's a game machine. It's not an automatic "all PS3 buyers prefer Blu-ray over HD DVD!!!" situation.
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Originally Posted by Draven
It continues to bother me that PS3 purchases are automatically lumped into the "total amount of Blu-ray players sold" category. I understand why they do it, but it bugs me.
It's completely plausible that someone could buy a PS3 and never stick a Blu-ray movie inside. To them it's not a Blu-ray player, it's a game machine. It's not an automatic "all PS3 buyers prefer Blu-ray over HD DVD!!!" situation.
It's completely plausible that someone could buy a PS3 and never stick a Blu-ray movie inside. To them it's not a Blu-ray player, it's a game machine. It's not an automatic "all PS3 buyers prefer Blu-ray over HD DVD!!!" situation.
![LOL](/images/smilies/lol.gif)
#667
DVD Talk Special Edition
Originally Posted by namja
We're getting solid state drives. Reliability is going to be a non-factor soon. Already many computers (Dells, Macs) can be configured to come with solid state drives instead of hard drives. In 5 years, these should be the norm (they may be the norm for Mac notebooks starting tomorrow?).
As for the download speeds, with VOD, you can already start watching a movie within a few seconds of hitting play. In 5 years, you should be able to start watching it instantly. Imagine having access to thousands of movies without ever having to store anything on your machine. It's like YouTube on steroids: all the movies at HD quality with instant access. Why bother storing anything locally?
As for the download speeds, with VOD, you can already start watching a movie within a few seconds of hitting play. In 5 years, you should be able to start watching it instantly. Imagine having access to thousands of movies without ever having to store anything on your machine. It's like YouTube on steroids: all the movies at HD quality with instant access. Why bother storing anything locally?
#668
DVD Talk Hall of Fame
Originally Posted by theWitcher
But with Toshiba's new HD DVD player strategy, things will get even muddier:
It's now plausible that someone might buy one of these Toshiba HD DVD players, and never stick an HD DVD inside!![LOL](/images/smilies/lol.gif)
It's now plausible that someone might buy one of these Toshiba HD DVD players, and never stick an HD DVD inside!
![LOL](/images/smilies/lol.gif)
#669
Originally Posted by namja
It's like YouTube on steroids: all the movies at HD quality with instant access. Why bother storing anything locally?
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Originally Posted by DVD Polizei
All this is wonderful if you have a 24/7 reliable connection. There isn't anything more irritating than not being able to watch a movie when you have created a time-slot for it.
I also believe there are enough people out there unwilling to go VOD to keep hard copy format alive. A combination of people who are not connected, not connected at fast enough speeds, or just simply like the idea of having the hard copy. Can't blame them IMO given the prices of high speed internet and digital cable/satellite services.
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IMO, VOD or movies stored on a harddrive lose their collection feel.
I really dont think it will take off for movie collectors. I see it becoming big for rental only.
I really dont think it will take off for movie collectors. I see it becoming big for rental only.
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Originally Posted by namja
We're getting solid state drives. Reliability is going to be a non-factor soon.
David
#674
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Originally Posted by cardaway
I also believe there are enough people out there unwilling to go VOD to keep hard copy format alive. A combination of people who are not connected, not connected at fast enough speeds, or just simply like the idea of having the hard copy. Can't blame them IMO given the prices of high speed internet and digital cable/satellite services.
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Simply put, there still will be a very large number of music CD's sold this year because a lot of peole cannot or will not go download.
I am one of them. I have no interest in paying 9.99 per "CD" when for only a buck or two more I can have the hard copy as a backup. In fact, I can usually get hard copy CD's for far less through music clubs or other sales. For me, online music is song by song, and I still back those up to hard copy.
I am one of them. I have no interest in paying 9.99 per "CD" when for only a buck or two more I can have the hard copy as a backup. In fact, I can usually get hard copy CD's for far less through music clubs or other sales. For me, online music is song by song, and I still back those up to hard copy.