Barth

Unless you have a kid, this summer really has no blockbusters to see. Even then some are sketchy. We took our 8 year old daughter to Life of Pets and even she was pretty meh on it. As was wife and I. When a third version of the Purge is released during the summer you know Hollywood is grasping.

Shannon Nutt

Well, Civil War was entertaining...but that wasn't technically a summer release (although the summer season has been pushed back from Memorial Day to the beginning of May in recent years).

I suspect Suicide Squad will be huge, even if it's only a so-so film.

I expect Jason Bourne to be really good, but not sure if it will be a hit.

Inhumans99

I just noticed that Tarzan has outgrossed Independence Day Resurgence, not bad for a movie everyone initially declared a big budget bomb after its lower than expected opening weekend gross.

RichC2

I didn't understand that, I don't know how much you could expect Tarzan to open to, it's fucking Tarzan. That, mixed with the reviews, and I'm surprised it's doing so well. But in general I find there to be an overemphasis on opening weekends these days, a huge opening doesn't mean it'll be a huge hit, nor does a middle of the road one mean you're down and out.

It has grossed $193m worldwide so far.

I wonder if Interstellar is considered a flop.

That said the Box Office has been unusually lopsided so far this year.

There have only been 13 movies that grossed $100m or more (we had about 18 this time last year), but of those 6 have crossed the $300m mark. It's like if you hit it, you hit it out of the park, or you were a total flop.

Ash Ketchum

From Box Office Guru:

There are two takeaways here:

1) TARZAN, which cost $180 million to make, has only just crossed the $100 million mark three weekends into its release. That's a flop by today's standards.

2) FINDING DORY is now the highest grossing animated film of all time. I imagine, though, that most of the Disney classics from 60-80 years ago (SNOW WHITE, PINOCCHIO, CINDERELLA, et al) sold way more tickets in the course of their release histories.

Barth

Well sure, people are still going to go to the movies regardless. I just don't see a breakout hit. Usually the summer has at least one movie that everybody talks about. Don't see it happening this time around. Life of Pets and Dory will make their money but they won't be instant classics like Frozen. We're almost to August, what movie should be the talked about movie of the summer at this point?

TomOpus

Surprised you need to ask. Who you need to call talk about....

RichC2

Ghostbusters is the hot topic movie of the summer, I'm starting to think Jason Bourne will be the breakout hit of the season (it's weird but I'm just glad they finally got Tommy Lee Jones into the franchise)

Star Trek Beyond is getting excellent reviews (90% with 31 reviews) but the advertising is horrible for it thus far.

Suicide Squad is tracking at $100m - $125m opening weekend
Jason Bourne is tracking at $50m opening weekend (Ultimatum opened at $69m, Supremacy at $52.5m, and Identity at $27m)
Star Trek Beyond $48m - $60m

Weekend Actuals for 7/15 - 7/17 2016:

<<Last Weekend <Last Year	View Index: By Year | By Weekend
TW LW Title (click to view) Studio Weekend Gross % Change Theater Count / Change Average Total Gross Budget* Week # 1 1 The Secret Life of Pets Uni. $50,838,355 -51.3% 4,381 +11 $11,604 $203,426,220 $75 2 2 N Ghostbusters (2016) Sony $46,018,755 - 3,963 - $11,612 $46,018,755 $144 1 3 2 The Legend of Tarzan WB $11,441,337 -45.5% 3,551 -40 $3,222 $103,371,594 $180 3 4 3 Finding Dory BV $11,281,179 -45.8% 3,536 -335 $3,190 $445,745,629 - 5 5 4 Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates Fox $7,657,918 -53.9% 3,008 +26 $2,546 $31,481,634 $33 2 6 5 The Purge: Election Year Uni. $6,185,695 -50.1% 2,671 -150 $2,316 $71,107,355 $10 3 7 6 Central Intelligence WB (NL) $5,372,013 -33.1% 2,381 -460 $2,256 $117,580,316 $50 5 8 N The Infiltrator BG $5,303,775 - 1,601 - $3,313 $6,766,624 - 1 9 7 The BFG BV $3,789,434 -51.5% 2,182 -1,210 $1,737 $47,379,045 $140 3 10 8 Independence Day: Resurgence Fox $3,521,282 -54.7% 2,290 -771 $1,538 $98,587,725 $165 4 11 9 The Shallows Sony $3,005,293 -37.4% 1,695 -711 $1,773 $51,400,382 $17 4 12 10 Sultan Yash $974,791 -58.9% 273 -9 $3,571 $5,248,781 - 2 13 11 The Conjuring 2 WB (NL) $851,350 -50.3% 566 -486 $1,504 $101,103,011 $40 6 14 13 Now You See Me 2 LG/S $687,309 -47.9% 523 -341 $1,314 $63,540,841 - 6 15 19 Hunt for the Wilderpeople Orch. $567,110 +46.5% 155 +83 $3,659 $1,468,754 - 4 16 24 The Jungle Book (2016) BV $517,355 +105.1% 276 +79 $1,874 $360,852,718 $175 14 17 12 Free State of Jones STX $482,543 -64.3% 506 -758 $954 $20,389,967 $50 4 18 N Cafe Society LGF $359,289 - 5 - $71,858 $359,289 - 1 19 14 Our Kind of Traitor RAtt. $300,690 -57.8% 262 -137 $1,148 $2,787,256 - 3 20 34 Captain Fantastic BST $288,888 +207.9% 36 +32 $8,025 $417,708 - 2 21 18 X-Men: Apocalypse Fox $276,998 -32.5% 250 -38 $1,108 $154,985,087 $178 8 22 15 Swiss Army Man A24 $257,692 -61.8% 228 -372 $1,130 $3,738,947 - 4

Finding Dory finally broke Shrek 2's animated record of $441m domestic (set in 2004, unadjusted) (Apparently Avatar doesn't count as animated, so it's a standalone record)

Barth

Well sure Ghostbusters was talked about for the last year, for the wrong reasons. It's not going to be a hit, heck, it's not even going to break even domestically.

I'm just asking what movie being released this summer that people will be talking about years down the road? Where's the Jaws, E.T., Jurassic Park, etc. that people talk about decades later?

DthRdrX

From what I read in the trades today, Ghostbusters was around 100 million in marketing putting total costs around 244m. Production was supposed to be 15 million more but Rothman slashed the budget any way he could when he took over at Sony. The word going around Hollywood is it needs around 300 worldwide to break even.

With Star Trek, Ice Age, Bourne, and Suicide Squad being released the next 2-3 weeks good luck with that.

RichC2

Hell, when was the last time we had a Spielberg summer title that people will remember? Obviously not the BFG. Or a memorable summer title in general that was somewhat original.

$300m ww is low if that $244m number were true. But I still find it hard to believe that they spent $100m promoting this thing. But that number gets thrown around a lot.

Defiant1

Early May releases have been considered part of the summer movie season for about 20 years now so yes, Civil War is a summer movie.

For whatever reason, I don't see Suicide Squad breaking out and I think that Jason Bourne will easily outgross it.

RichC2

Box Office Numbers (Final) for 7/22/2016 - 7/24/2016:

<<Last Weekend <Last Year	View Index: By Year | By Weekend
TW LW Title (click to view) Studio Weekend Gross % Change Theater Count / Change Average Total Gross Budget* Week # 1 N Star Trek Beyond Par. $59,253,211 - 3,928 - $15,085 $59,253,211 $185 1 2 1 The Secret Life of Pets Uni. $29,607,210 -41.8% 4,048 -333 $7,314 $260,985,955 $75 3 3 N Lights Out WB (NL) $21,688,103 - 2,818 - $7,696 $21,688,103 $4.9 1 4 N Ice Age: Collision Course Fox $21,373,064 - 3,992 - $5,354 $21,373,064 $105 1 5 2 Ghostbusters (2016) Sony $21,009,831 -54.3% 3,963 - $5,301 $86,266,570 $144 2 6 4 Finding Dory BV $7,234,806 -35.9% 2,576 -960 $2,809 $460,213,925 - 6 7 3 The Legend of Tarzan WB $6,576,417 -42.5% 2,844 -707 $2,312 $115,970,501 $180 4 8 5 Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates Fox $4,385,285 -42.7% 2,137 -871 $2,052 $40,343,032 $33 3 9 37 Hillary's America: The Secret History of the Democratic Party QF $3,964,646 +5,199.3% 1,216 +1,213 $3,260 $4,056,170 - 2 10 8 The Infiltrator BG $3,328,382 -37.2% 1,537 -64 $2,166 $12,274,291 - 2 11 7 Central Intelligence WB (NL) $2,820,284 -47.5% 1,602 -779 $1,760 $123,138,447 $50 6 12 6 The Purge: Election Year Uni. $2,379,900 -61.5% 1,701 -970 $1,399 $76,622,120 $10 4 13 N Kabali CineGalaxy $1,977,716 - 236 - $8,380 $3,903,095 - 1 14 N Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie FoxS $1,861,118 - 313 - $5,946 $1,861,118 - 1 15 9 The BFG BV $1,012,646 -73.3% 686 -1,496 $1,476 $50,955,703 $140 4 16 10 Independence Day: Resurgence Fox $902,718 -74.4% 730 -1,560 $1,237 $101,227,043 $165 5 17 18 Cafe Society LGF $849,937 +136.6% 50 +45 $16,999 $1,352,316 - 2

So the main reason I'm keeping this updated now is for future discussion, since this is the time that will decide if we end up with a Ghostbusters II or a Star Trek 4.

This past weekend's estimates had us with Ghostbusters and Lights Out tying for 3rd, with Ice Age in 5th. That has corrected and now Ghostbusters is in 5th and Lights Out is in 3rd. This in and of itself doesn't mean anything, but since it's Ghostbusters it'll get played up a lot. Regardless, 5 movies cracking $20m in a single weekend is still pretty impressive.

Lights Out killed it, did some very impressive work there. Ice Age hasn't been tracking well and is $20m lower than what it normally opens at (in the low $40 millions), but I'm sure Fox is less concerned with domestic than abroad (Ice Age has always been very popular overseas in large part to its reliance on slap stick over dialogue driven comedy). Ghostbusters is down 54%, I feel Sony knew what they were doing with their estimate yesterday -- just to get it at 3rd ("Fell to 5th!" makes a great headline.), even though it's a fairly average fall.

Next weekend we have Jason Bourne and the 2nd weekend of Beyond.

RichC2

Weekend Preview -

Jason Bourne is tracking to do $30m+ and is tracking the same as Rogue Nation -- which tracked for $30m and opened at $55m. Similar is expected here. The less than great reviews may hamper it slightly.

Bad Moms is currently tracking for a low to mid-$20m opening, however, it's also doing better presales than Trainwreck which opened to $30m this time last year. Reviews are not yet available.

Nerve starts today, it grossed $1m at its Tuesday night previews. Critically, it is doing slightly better than Jason Bourne, and is expected to make $9m - $10m this weekend.

ST Beyond is expected to take a 60% drop due to Jason Bourne hitting the key demo, will be interesting to see. Since it's only Wednesday we don't yet know how it's doing during the week, though it did well on Monday.

Star Trek Beyond made $7m on Tuesday, achieving a rare first Tuesday bounce (most new movies are down slightly on their first Tuesday) which bodes well for it holding up well this weekend. The movie is now at $72.5m.

Defiant1

Bourne is only tracking for $30M? That is shockingly low considering that Ultimatum opened at $69M. Did the long wait, so-so reviews, and the lacklustre response to Legacy tarnish the brand that much?

RichC2

The $30m is from before the reviews, but even with that tracking most estimates put it in the $50m range.

I think another issue it is having is similar to Beyond, where the ads don't really tell you what the movie is about, if anything. They're selling it as just "more." I don't need an ad or trailer to spell out the entire movie like others do, but it's good to have an idea about whats happening.

Brack

The plots of the Bourne movies have always been secondary. I'm a huge fan of the series, own them on Blu ray, but honestly can't remember all the double-crosses and plot points. I remember lots of car chases, running, and fights. I'm probably going to do a marathon of the first three films today.

RichC2

They all had themes to sell you though:

Identity had "He lost his identity."
Supremacy had "They threatened his life"
Ultimatum had "He finally gets his answers."

They're all hooks to at least get you going, Jason Bourne is being sold as "He's back to kick more ass!" which doesn't strike me as a great hook. That said, I still want to see it. I wasn't a huge fan of #2 or #3, but Damon is great in the role and they're usually at least mildly entertaining.

Brack

Every ad/trailer has that "You may remember everything, but you don't know everything" line from Julia Stiles' character. What else do we need?

RichC2

Fair enough

RichC2

Early estimates:

Jason Bourne made $4.3m on Thursday night (previews) and is looking like $57m - $60m for the weekend.

Bad Moms is shaping up to have a $12m Friday ($2m from Thursday previews) and a $30m - $33m weekend.

Nerve opened on Tuesday, and is now looking at a debut of roughly $15m.

No word yet on Beyond's second weekend.

RichC2

The Secret Life of Pets has crossed $300m domestic, there are two more family animated flicks coming out this summer: Laika's Kubo and the Two Strings, and Nicholas Stoller's Storks (Technically a fall release but it's next month so oh well). Kubo will likely get the acclaim, Storks will likely make the money.

Obi-Wanma

Kubo looks great, but I would be surprised if it made much bank. Storks looks like total shit

RichC2

Here are the Weekend Actuals for 8/5/2016 - 8/7/2016:

<<Last Weekend <Last Year	View Index: By Year | By Weekend
TW LW Title (click to view) Studio Weekend Gross % Change Theater Count / Change Average Total Gross Budget* Week # 1 N Suicide Squad WB $133,682,248 - 4,255 - $31,418 $133,682,248 $175 1 2 1 Jason Bourne Uni. $22,405,125 -62.2% 4,039 +13 $5,547 $103,111,145 $120 2 3 3 Bad Moms STX $14,004,006 -41.2% 3,215 - $4,356 $50,850,836 $20 2 4 4 The Secret Life of Pets Uni. $11,500,590 -39.2% 3,417 -260 $3,366 $319,519,370 $75 5 5 2 Star Trek Beyond Par. $10,036,030 -59.5% 3,263 -665 $3,076 $127,737,394 $185 3 6 N Nine Lives (2016) EC $6,249,915 - 2,264 - $2,761 $6,249,915 - 1 7 6 Lights Out WB (NL) $6,006,454 -44.4% 2,581 -254 $2,327 $54,715,706 $4.9 3 8 8 Nerve LGF $4,861,528 -48.5% 2,538 - $1,915 $26,850,322 - 2 9 7 Ghostbusters (2016) Sony $4,676,192 -53.8% 2,545 -507 $1,837 $116,588,128 $144 4 10 5 Ice Age: Collision Course Fox $4,325,094 -60.6% 2,738 -1,259 $1,580 $53,564,891 $105 3 11 9 Finding Dory BV $1,957,734 -54.7% 1,122 -611 $1,745 $473,872,375 - 8 12 12 Cafe Society LGF $1,605,786 -31.2% 631 +66 $2,545 $6,695,597 - 4 13 11 Hillary's America: The Secret History of the Democratic Party QF $930,025 -62.1% 672 -394 $1,384 $11,120,971 - 4 14 10 The Legend of Tarzan WB $801,735 -67.5% 648 -855 $1,237 $124,051,759 $180 6 15 14 Captain Fantastic BST $584,171 -44.9% 363 -187 $1,609 $3,581,232 - 5 16 34 Indignation RAtt. $420,266 +351.3% 55 +51 $7,641 $560,512 - 2 17 29 Don't Think Twice TFA $373,556 +140.8% 57 +52 $6,554 $679,404 - 3 18 15 Central Intelligence WB (NL) $371,126 -59.1% 266 -386 $1,395 $126,088,877 $50 8 19 21 Hunt for the Wilderpeople Orch. $335,494 -8.3% 176 +2 $1,906 $3,469,226 - 7 20 17 Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie FoxS $333,253 -59.9% 226 -129 $1,475 $4,152,331 - 3 21 19 The BFG BV $295,536 -35.5% 234 -39 $1,263 $52,792,307 $140 6

Suicide Squad trended down quite a bit from its early weekend $146m, but I think studios and sites are overestimating after being so far off with last Summer's Jurassic World -- which going into the weekend looked to make around $90m, then $110m, then $130m, then eventually $210m.

I seriously hope weak earnings for Beyond doesn't stop current Star Trek, I find the series a tremendous amount of fun, especially compared to other franchises of late.

Internationally:
Jason Bourne has grossed $90m for $194.1m Worldwide.
Beyond has grossed $66.5m for $194.2m Worldwide
Suicide Squad pulled $133m for $266m Worldwide
Secret Life of Pets has pulled $183m for $503m Worldwide

RichC2

Sausage Party pulled $3.25m for Thursday, it's looking to have a pretty solid weekend. Estimated place it at $15 - $20m, I think it'll blow past that with ease.

Suicide Squad is having a very strong midweek run, but schools are still out in most places so there is no real comparison against BvS at this time. It's now at $170m.