Paramount/Dreamworks go HD DVD exclusive
08-20-07, 01:55 PM
#126
Moderator
Originally Posted by slop101
Wow, Hunt has completely gone of the edge and turned into the very same "fan-boy" he chastises. And as if Sony hasn't paid of the studios exclusive to Blu-ray...
08-20-07, 01:55 PM
#127
DVD Talk Legend
I find it laughable that people are claiming that now Microsoft's VOD service will take over. As if people will automatically want to start downloading their movies instead of owning physical media. I sure as hell have no intention of downloading movies whether the HD formats survive or not.
08-20-07, 01:57 PM
#128
DVD Talk Godfather
A while back I had looked at box office performance as a way to gage "market share"... Knowing full well that box office performance doesn't translate well to video, this is the best I could do.
Previously, Blu-Ray had roughly a 2:1 advantage over HD DVD in terms of box office performance of its movies. My data tracked back about ten years but only looked at "blockbusters" - the top 50 movies of each year. The biggest studios in the last decade were, in this order:
1. Disney / Miramax ($10bn)
-. Warner Bros / New Line (tie)
3. Fox ($6.7bn)
-. Sony (tie)
5. Universal ($6.3bn)
6. Paramount ($5.5bn)
7. Dreamworks ($3.4bn)
8. MGM ($1.1bn)
Everyone else (Weinstein, LGF) lagged far behind (under $1bn).
Blu-Ray studios grossed $45bn, HD DVD studios grossed $26bn, out of a pie of $52bn. Blu-Ray had 86% of blockbusters, HD DVD had half.
Now, what does this look like?
With the same 1996-2006 data, BD now only has 70% of blockbusters, and HD DVD has the same amount, half.
If you look at 2006 and 2007 (so far), the Top 100 movies (50 from each year), grossed this much for studios:
MGM, Sony, Disney: $4.2bn
Fox: $1.6bn
Universal, P/DW: $3.1bn
WB: $1.7bn
A total of $10.7bn (doesn't add up due to rounding).
BD, without Fox, has a 55% share.
BD, with Fox, has a 70% share.
HD DVD has a 45% share.
For all intents and purposes, BD has a very, very small benefit currently. If they can get Fox back on board, they'll end up doing a lot better.
Basically, no matter how you slice it, from a purely business standpoint, BD is better positioned with the studios it has. Although their advantage has declined a lot, to be sure.
Previously, Blu-Ray had roughly a 2:1 advantage over HD DVD in terms of box office performance of its movies. My data tracked back about ten years but only looked at "blockbusters" - the top 50 movies of each year. The biggest studios in the last decade were, in this order:
1. Disney / Miramax ($10bn)
-. Warner Bros / New Line (tie)
3. Fox ($6.7bn)
-. Sony (tie)
5. Universal ($6.3bn)
6. Paramount ($5.5bn)
7. Dreamworks ($3.4bn)
8. MGM ($1.1bn)
Everyone else (Weinstein, LGF) lagged far behind (under $1bn).
Blu-Ray studios grossed $45bn, HD DVD studios grossed $26bn, out of a pie of $52bn. Blu-Ray had 86% of blockbusters, HD DVD had half.
Now, what does this look like?
With the same 1996-2006 data, BD now only has 70% of blockbusters, and HD DVD has the same amount, half.
If you look at 2006 and 2007 (so far), the Top 100 movies (50 from each year), grossed this much for studios:
MGM, Sony, Disney: $4.2bn
Fox: $1.6bn
Universal, P/DW: $3.1bn
WB: $1.7bn
A total of $10.7bn (doesn't add up due to rounding).
BD, without Fox, has a 55% share.
BD, with Fox, has a 70% share.
HD DVD has a 45% share.
For all intents and purposes, BD has a very, very small benefit currently. If they can get Fox back on board, they'll end up doing a lot better.
Basically, no matter how you slice it, from a purely business standpoint, BD is better positioned with the studios it has. Although their advantage has declined a lot, to be sure.
08-20-07, 02:00 PM
#130
Suspended
Originally Posted by kiett_2000
Wow. A lot of BD owners are very pissed off about this. Some are threatening to boycott and wrote email to paramount. I guess they know how HD DVD people feel when Blockbuster and Target went exclusive.
08-20-07, 02:00 PM
#131
DVD Talk Godfather
Damed: HD on demand is a few gigabytes. Sometimes they even fit on a DVD. The result is, of course, quality that is akin to a very good cable station, not a disc.
08-20-07, 02:02 PM
#132
DVD Talk Godfather
Originally Posted by lotsofdvds
So pissed off BD owners are going to boycott a studio that no longers makes product for their format? Okay, we'll see how successful that is. LOL
I'm "boycotting" Sony, Disney, and Fox because aside from a single title, I haven't bought anything on home video from them since last year. I'm not going back to buying DVDs until both HD formats are dead as a doornail or the release is from some outside studio that doesn't have HD masters. So, until I buy a Blu-Ray player or HD DVD is supported, those studios don't get my money.
Granted, if the hardware was free I would've bought a lot of their titles, I have to admit.
08-20-07, 02:06 PM
#133
Originally Posted by lotsofdvds
So pissed off BD owners are going to boycott a studio that no longers makes product for their format? Okay, we'll see how successful that is. LOL
http://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=14098
Some are selling their ps3's and cancelling ALL of their blu-ray pre-orders. One poster is referring to today as "BLACK MONDAY"
Some are reacting so badly that they might want to check in to a psych ward to put themselves on suicide watch.
08-20-07, 02:06 PM
#134
Senior Member
Wow and this will be an even bigger win for HD-DVD when this title http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/archi...ther_resto.php
from Paramount Pictures will be released. This title will definitely make me jump to HD-DVD!
from Paramount Pictures will be released. This title will definitely make me jump to HD-DVD!
08-20-07, 02:07 PM
#135
DVD Talk Hall of Fame
This may have been paid off by microsoft but I'm not sure it has to do with HD-VOD. It may be forward thinking on their part for an eventual xbox 360 with an integrated hd-dvd drive. Afterall, a lot of Sony's claims have to do with installed units, numbers of which are high, thanks in large part to the PS3. If, say by this fall, microsoft came out with that new version of a 360, and the exclusive titles...
Seems like there was already an indication of this by microsoft recently. The drop in price of the add-on and the 5 hd titles deal.
Seems like there was already an indication of this by microsoft recently. The drop in price of the add-on and the 5 hd titles deal.
08-20-07, 02:07 PM
#136
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Originally Posted by The Bus
Damed: HD on demand is a few gigabytes. Sometimes they even fit on a DVD. The result is, of course, quality that is akin to a very good cable station, not a disc.
So I would have to sacrifice quality? Again, I don't think so.
Also, considering most j6p are essentially technophobes, I just can't see how this would ever take off.
08-20-07, 02:12 PM
#139
DVD Talk Godfather
Originally Posted by Damed
Also, considering most j6p are essentially technophobes, I just can't see how this would ever take off.
Mind you, I am not seeking out VOD. This is simply what's available to me through other products and services I use. VOD is here and it's here to stay. Whether or not it becomes the dominant form of seeing movies is irrelevant.
Your technophobe argument also seems dated. Five or ten years ago, downloading movies (legally or illegally) was a daunting task. While Amazon's Unbox takes a bit of work to get working (downloading it, installing it), iPod users already have iTunes. To buy a movie you click on the button that says "Buy"... that's it.
To buy a movie through your cable company, you pick the movie and hit "Buy" and that's it. Same thing with the console.
Last edited by The Bus; 08-20-07 at 02:15 PM.
08-20-07, 02:19 PM
#140
Wow! I can't believe it. Having Transformers exclusive to HD DVD is going to be HUGE. That's a title that can sell some units, especially since they'll be priced around $200 for the holidays. I think this also takes pressure off of Universal to become neutral. Glad I still have my A1 after all. Looks like this format war is destined to last through at least 2008.
If they can pay Paramount to stay exclusive for 2008, I'm sure the same will go for Universal.
Is Warner Brothers next?
If they can pay Paramount to stay exclusive for 2008, I'm sure the same will go for Universal.
Is Warner Brothers next?
08-20-07, 02:19 PM
#141
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Originally Posted by fitprod
Financially, excluding the "rumored" $100 - $150 million payoff, this makes no logical business sense. Why would you throw out the protential to sell an additonal 150 to 200 thousand copies of a monster hit like Transformers? (It's not like this title is going to sell more than 100,000 units on HD DVD as an exclusive...)
08-20-07, 02:19 PM
#142
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I love technology. I work with technology. I am a home theatre freak.
My family and friends, have a hard enough time programming the time on their VCR. They can use their computers for email and internet browsing, not much past that.
My dad to this day finds his satellite tv system way too confusing, so he barely watches tv anymore.
*I* could see using VOD. I can't see these folks doing it.
My family and friends, have a hard enough time programming the time on their VCR. They can use their computers for email and internet browsing, not much past that.
My dad to this day finds his satellite tv system way too confusing, so he barely watches tv anymore.
*I* could see using VOD. I can't see these folks doing it.
08-20-07, 02:20 PM
#143
DVD Talk Legend
Originally Posted by dan30oly
You want a good laugh, read this:
http://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=14098
Some are selling their ps3's and cancelling ALL of their blu-ray pre-orders. One poster is referring to today as "BLACK MONDAY"
Some are reacting so badly that they might want to check in to a psych ward to put themselves on suicide watch.
http://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=14098
Some are selling their ps3's and cancelling ALL of their blu-ray pre-orders. One poster is referring to today as "BLACK MONDAY"
Some are reacting so badly that they might want to check in to a psych ward to put themselves on suicide watch.
Thankfully, I'm a dual supporter.
08-20-07, 02:23 PM
#144
Suspended
Originally Posted by asianxcore
That's insane and sort of sad really. Almost every post in that thread amused me.
Thankfully, I'm a dual supporter.
Thankfully, I'm a dual supporter.
08-20-07, 02:24 PM
#145
DVD Talk Hall of Fame
Originally Posted by Bill Hunt
'll tell you what... I'm betting Fox and MGM start making Blu-ray Disc exclusive announcements and soon. You just watch. The reaction will be swift...
08-20-07, 02:26 PM
#147
Moderator
Originally Posted by waporvare
It would be funny if Fox had been dragging it's feet because it was considering going HD-DVD exclusive. If that were to happen Bill Hunt would stroke out.
08-20-07, 02:29 PM
#150
DVD Talk Legend
Originally Posted by Maxflier
People keep asking if WB will be next to go exclusive, but why would they? They seem to be enjoying maximizing their profits by selling on both formats.
Imagine if that happens, which ever side lose their support, their fans will go ballistic.
